It Felt Right. It Wasn’t - Why Your Intuition Might Be Lying to You
- James Partsch Jr
- Jun 5
- 4 min read
Ron Johnson's gut feeling about eliminating sales at JCPenney felt revolutionary. Twelve months later: 25% revenue drop, his termination, and a board meeting that felt like a war crimes tribunal. His intuition? Still felt right to him.
Your brain is built to prioritize survival. Not business decisions.
That sounds harsh. But it’s true.
Your brain isn't built for truth. It's built for speed. It likes shortcuts. Patterns.
It wants to make fast conclusions, avoid pain, and feel good doing it.
In business, your best ideas might be built on those mental shortcuts. Not facts. Not logic. Just bias that feels right.
We call it intuition or experience. But too often, it’s just bias that fits the story we want to tell.
And when it feels right? No one questions it. That’s how bad decisions survive.
I Almost Did What Was Easy. I Never Forgot What Happened Next.
Years ago, I was leading global digital programs and heading into major surgery. I needed a continuity plan. I had an intern. Smart, familiar with the work. Slotting them in to manage things while I recovered felt simple.
That’s when a leader I respected hit me with a question I still hear to this day:
“Are you doing what’s easy or what’s right?”
It stopped me cold. Not because it was harsh. Because it was true.
I had confused familiarity with logic. I had let bias decide.
From that moment on, I never walked into a room without asking myself: Am I doing this because it’s right, or because it’s easier to explain?
The Biases That Feel Like Strategy
They don’t sound wrong. They don’t trigger alarms. They’re not loud. They don’t announce themselves like bad advice. They’re quiet. Familiar. They feel like truth.
That’s why they work.
Here’s how they sneak in and sabotage your decisions.
1. Sunk Cost Fallacy
You’re Not Investing. You’re Just Afraid to Quit.
You’ve already spent the time, money, energy. You don’t want to lose it.
You’re not committed. You’re clinging. But keeping a bad plan alive doesn’t honor your past effort. It disrespects it.
Pulling the plug early isn’t reckless. It’s being honest and bold.
It means you saw the truth sooner than most.
2. Confirmation Bias
You Found What You Wanted. Not What You Needed.
That one metric that makes the slide look great? You cherry-picked it.
The five metrics that say otherwise? You buried them.
You already made up your mind. Now you're collecting evidence to defend it.
Data isn’t truth unless you look at all of it.
You’re not analyzing. You’re narrating a story you already believed.
3. Authority Bias
They Got Promoted. Not Smarter.
They didn’t get smarter with their title, just more influential.
Even great leaders get it wrong. You owe them honesty, not automatic agreement.
Respect the title. Respect experience. But always question the thinking.
4. Recency Bias
The Last Thing That Happened Isn’t Necessarily the Truth.
The last meeting. The last call. The latest drama.
Recency isn’t reality. Not every moment is a trend.
Chasing noise guarantees you miss the signal.
5. Halo Effect
Past Wins Don’t Guarantee Present Wisdom.
They nailed the last project. Doesn’t mean they’re right this time.
Halo bias is success transferring without proof.
Past success doesn’t mean a free pass. The idea still needs to stand on its own.
Even the best hitters strike out. Question the pitch, not the player.
6. Negativity Bias
You're Not Seeing the Full Picture. Just the Worst Part.
One angry email. One rough review. Suddenly, everything feels broken.
It’s human. Our brains are wired to overweigh risk and protect us by spotting threats.
But in business, that instinct protects you until it paralyzes you.
Invite the Dissent. Even When It’s Inconvenient.
There’s a reason most teams avoid criticism. It’s uncomfortable. It slows things down. It forces us to confront what we don’t want to see.
I learned long ago that one voice of dissent can unlock the truth, if you know how to listen.
Her name was Judy.
She wasn’t an exec. She wasn’t polished. But she always had something to say. Usually, it was a complaint about a report column or a minor process change that would “break everything.”
At first, it felt petty, distracting, even annoying at times. Then I started digging.
Every time Judy pushed back, there was something buried underneath.A real inefficiency. A customer truth we hadn’t seen. A landmine in our logic.
So I started inviting her in early. Not to approve the plan, but to pressure-test it.
If I could get Judy’s buy-in, the whole room listened. Not because she was easy to convince. Because she never was.
I call it The Judy Rule: Win over the educated dissenter, and the rest will follow.
Invite dissent, especially when it’s inconvenient. That’s where your blind spots hide.
Why Bias Costs More Than You Think
Bias doesn't just lead to one bad call.
It becomes the logic everyone else copies.
Left unchecked, bias becomes the default. It replaces thinking with habit.
One leader’s shortcut turns into a company’s blind spot.
That’s how teams waste money.
That’s how promising strategies get flattened into consensus mediocrity.
You stop thinking. You start defending. It compounds and becomes your culture.
How to Break the Pattern
Ask yourself: Would I make the same decision today if it were brand new?
Invite the tough voices early. Don’t wait until the launch fails or worse, for a post-mortem.
Say the bias out loud. Make it normal to call it out when seen.
Pressure test the plan. Find your Judy. Put them on the invite list early.
💬 Final Word
Your instincts aren’t always wrong. But they’re rarely neutral.
Your gut can guide, but it needs guardrails.
Smart strategy doesn’t come from instinct. It comes from challenging what feels right.
Leaders don’t get paid to be right. They get paid to make it right, even when that means changing course or making unpopular decisions.
Stop calling bias 'experience.' Stop calling gut feelings 'leadership intuition.' And stop pretending that being wrong confidently is better than making things right, even if it's later. Your shareholders don't care how good your instincts felt.
🔎 Up Next:
A full wrap-up of all five fallacy families, complete with visuals, patterns, and tools to help you spot them in your meetings, metrics, and mindsets.
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